Expect El Nino to bust the drought? Prediction suggests you may need to think again

Experts think California drought will persist through El Nino year.

Californians are anxiously awaiting the fall when a very powerful El Nino weather pattern is expected to ease the state's four-year long drought. But there's a problem - the latest models suggest another weather pattern may prevent California from getting the bountiful rain it would otherwise receive. 

LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Californians love rain, mostly because it is so rare across the state. The central San Joaquin Valley is especially reliant on rain and Sierra snowpack to grow the food the rest of the country needs. Los Angeles is dependent on Sierra snowpack to provide water to millions of thirsty people. 

With a major drought now well into its fourth year, the state has imposed water restrictions and fines to conserve water. Data shows that Californians are doing their part, reducing water use and even ripping out lawns and replacing them with artful selections of rocks and native cactus. Sales of Astroturf have risen. 

More seriously, some towns in the central valley have run out of water entirely, their wells too shallow to draw from deep underground aquifers that have been filled over the span of hundreds of thousands of years or more. Emergency funds have been appropriated to drill new wells, but even these expensive, deeper wells are only a temporary solution. 

Unable to fill swimming pools or to water lawns, Californians have watched the formation of the El Nino with bated breath. El Nino is a warming of the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of South America. The abnormally warm band of water begins off the coast of Peru and extends thousands of miles west. This water spawns rain-laden storms and shifts weather patterns. 

Most of the world is imperiled by El Nino. Droughts intensify in many places and in others, damaging storms strike with ferocity. However, one nation fares a little less badly than the rest, that is, the United States does better thanks to geography. The US sees fewer hurricanes and tropical storms during El Nino years. The western and southern states get more rain up from the tropics. These rains can lead to damaging floods, and most of the water runs into the ocean eventually, but it can also recharge water supplies. 

Unfortunately, California's optimism for 2016 may be sorely misplaced. 

Another dominant weather pattern is threatening to steal El Nino's thunder. Known as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR), this dome of high pressure remains fixed and situated over the abnormally hot water in the Northern Pacific Ocean. 

Ridges of high pressure typically form over the North Pacific in the summer, but they move and weaken, especially in the fall. However, the RRR has remained in place for four years, surviving right through winter and strengthening back in the spring. This feature is the cause of California's drought. 

The ugly news is that the RRR is now anticipated to block much of the refreshing rain that California needs. Models from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict that most of California will remain dry and the state's drought will intensify. 

Los Angeles and San Diego will receive most of the extra rainfall, but this will fall on desert and urban areas and will end up back in the ocean. Little will be captured and less will be stored. The Sierra Nevada Mountains which store the majority of the state's water as snowpack will remain critically dry. 

The result will be another year of serious drought, intensifying water restrictions, and eventually the collapse of agriculture and communities as water runs out. If the drought should continue for even longer, the state's economy could be in jeopardy and a mass exodus of water refugees could lead to problems across the country. At the minimum, you can expect your food costs to grow significantly. 

While Californios should prepare for some extra rain, no matter what, the likelihood of El Nino busting the drought is zero. Residents of the Golden State should prepare for more restrictions and more problems, right on through the winter and into the next sweltering summer. 

Again, the Catholic perspective is the best one to have during this time, pray for rain and snowpack, be conscientious and charitable, and learn to respect the environment because people depend on the fortunes of the Earth for survival. When those fortunes fail, we have only the grace of God and one another to help.

---

'Help Give every Student and Teacher FREE resources for a world-class Moral Catholic Education'

Copyright 2021 - Distributed by Catholic Online