Waymo announces self driving trucks, industry close to shifting

Truck driving will change in stages over the next decade.

Self-driving trucks are almost here as another builder announces it too is developing a self-driving big rig. The rig has now been spotted in public for the first time. Experts believe it is only a matter of months before self-driving trucks enter the market.

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) -- The truck driving is one of America's biggest industries, employing over three million people as drivers alone. Another five million works in support roles. The financial size of the industry exceeds $250 billion making it bigger than any manufacturing industry.

The concern is for the three million, or one percent of Americans who work as drivers. Within a matter of years, their jobs will be replaced by autonomous vehicles.

The latest entrant into the self-driving truck industry is Waymo, an offshoot from Google's Alphabet. The firm already has several trucks sporting a distinctive blue cab, and at least one truck has been seen driving, collecting data. The truck is still controlled at all times by a driver, but is outfitted with self-driving technology.

Drivers of self-driving big rigs claim the systems are simple to use, and require only a switch be thrown. After that, the system works like cruise control, except it autonomously drives the vehicle itself.

The goal is to minimize and eliminate human involvement.

Humans are essential to trucking, but they are also a liability. Humans cause accidents, need sick days and time off, and require pay. A self-driving truck would only demand maintenance.

Early designs will still incorporate humans with the self-driving ability used to make work easier rather than replace the driver altogether. Drivers will be able to relax a little as the truck does most of the work between destinations. Closer to the destination, drivers will take over and navigate through areas of denser traffic.

The eventual goal is to eliminate drivers altogether. The process will be gradual and it may take up to a generation, but it will happen. It will also result in lower fuel, maintenance, and insurance costs.

The long-term gain will be lower costs for transport, improved safety and enhanced profits. Consumers will pay less for products.

The downside is that one out of every 100 Americans will lose their job over the next decade or so. What will these people do? Trucking employs a large population of people who may have difficulty finding other lines of work, such as rehabilitated felons. It also pays well and provides a solid, dependable living.

Truck driving is being used as a bellweather because it will be one of first, major classes of job to be entirely outmoded by technology. Many jobs have been replaced by technology and automation so far, but none have been so large and impactful as trucking.

As trucking goes, so too will other jobs. Many white-collar jobs are likely to be replaced by technology such as insurance underwriting, and even journalism.

Over the next century, futurists predict the end of work as we know it. Artificial intelligence and robots will become so good at performing tasks that humans will be obsolete. Robots and AI will even maintain, repair and replace their own kind, leaving humans with nothing to do.

What happens then? There are two possibilities. In one, billions of people become chronically unemployed and without a role in the future economy. Either poverty will be rampant across the planet with its host of ills, or billions will perish by democide, disease, malnutrition, and warfare.

Alternatively, governments may compel the most profitable businesses and individuals to pay high taxes, enough to sustain those who cannot work. The revenues will be distributed to the people as universal basic income, providing billions of people with a basic living.

With their needs met, these billions of people will be free to do nothing at all, or, as early experiments suggest, they will devote themselves to new pursuits that give their lives meaning. That's likely to mean starting businesses, and inventing and creating new things that are yet unimagined. This is the brighter of the two possibilities.

Which option we choose is up to us, and will depend on how we react to new technology. The policies we advocate and support will make the difference. We will have to rethink old myths and old ways of being. We will have to reimagine what it means to work.

As more startups come on line, the end of human work approaches. Truck drivers are first up, but we are all on the list for replacement.