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Biden comes back, Sanders falters, and Trump wins

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Last minute backroom negotiations bring Biden close to victory.

The American presidential race has changed as Democrat Joe Biden's campaign came back to life last night. Biden performed so poorly in the first several contests that many wrote off his campaign. However, a win in South Carolina on Saturday reinvigorated his campaign. A series of dropouts and endorsements has led him to winning 9 states and earning more delegates that Bernie Sanders, who was previously favored to win. 

The 2020 matchup looks more like it will be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Despite the polls, Trump has a strong base of support as Democrats continue to sabotage their own campaign.

The 2020 matchup looks more like it will be between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Despite the polls, Trump has a strong base of support as Democrats continue to sabotage their own campaign.

Highlights

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) - Yesterday was "Super Tuesday" in the USA, a date on which multiple states choose their nominee for president. Included are two large states, California and Texas. 

A couple weeks ago, it seemed apparent that Joe Biden's campaign was on life support. He lost several early contests and was losing endorsements, and financial support. Biden needed a big win in last Saturday's South Carolina primary, and he got it. South Carolina has a large population of black voters who supported Biden because he is regarded as a somewhat local candidate. As Barack Obama's vice president, Biden is also popular with black voters. He enjoys name recognition. 

That win called into question predictions that Bernie Sanders would be the apparent nominee. However, Sanders predicted a large win on Super Tuesday. While Sanders won states like California and Texas, delegates are awarded proportionally, which means both Biden and Sanders both earned delegates from the states. At the end of the evening, Biden had more delegates then Sanders. 

Now it is Sanders' campaign that is on life support. While Sanders may still beat Biden in the total number of delegates earned, the rules and politics of the Democratic party ensure Biden will be the nominee anyway. Sanders needed to win virtually every state and an overwhelming majority of the candidates on Tuesday, and that did not happen. 

Part of the reason Biden came back was the last minute dropout of Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar, both who immediately endorsed Biden. As of Wednesday, Mike Bloomberg, who spent nearly one billion of his $60 billion dollar fortune to run for president, also dropped out and endorsed Biden. 

Elizabeth Warren is also facing calls to drop out. She finished third in her own state of Massachusetts. While Warren is regarded as being a progressive like Bernie Sanders, she is also a party insider. Her supporters have clashed with Sanders' supporters. It is likely she will endorse Biden too, an apparent betrayal of her progressive brand. Yet, the apologetics will be made, that it is time for the party to unite behind one candidate. 

The problem for the party is twofold. First, even if Sanders has the most votes, the party will use superdelegates, who are unelected party insiders, to nominate Biden anyway. Second, the majority of the Democrats under age 45 dislike Joe Biden. According to exit polls, 48 percent under 45 cast ballots for Sanders. Only 17 percent voted for Biden. The rest voted for other candidates. 

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Meanwhile, in voters over age 45, the results were reversed with 40 percent voting for Biden and 18 percent for Sanders. 

This is a crisis for the party because there is, for the first time, a massive ideological split in the party along age and ideology. The young are excited about Bernie Sanders' democratic socialism. Older voters tend to participate more, which explains the results, but as the youth age and come into their own power, either the Democratic party will have to change, or it will split in two. 

All these troubles are a win for Donald Trump. Biden is inarticulate, prone to gaffes and strange habits including touching people in public in ways that are unwelcome. While President Trump has his own issues, he has already been vetted, survived impeachment, and is being supported by a strong economy. And he enjoys strong support from his party. 

So far the polls suggest both Sanders and Biden can defeat Trump in a general election, but those polls do not take into account the likely growing animosity between Sanders' and Biden's supporters. If enough Sanders supporters stay home or vote for Trump or a third party out of spite, Trump could be handed reelection. 

The states Biden won in the primary are also likely to vote for Trump in the general election. 

Joe Biden will have to pivot to gain support of progressive voters. His winning message has been, "I can defeat Donald Trump." But that message has not worked very well so far. It's barely enough to keep him in the lead, but it has not inspired broad support. 

Meanwhile, President Trump's economy continues with low unemployment and a strong market, even in spite of coronavirus fears. 


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