When will California's next big earthquake happen? Risk increases dramatically

New study predicts next 'big one' will happen in 30 years.

California's risk of being hit by a large "big one" earthquake has increased dramatically, from 4.7 percent to 7 percent, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The state is likely to experience a magnitude 8 earthquake or even larger in the next 30 years.

MUNTINLUPA, PHILIPPINES (Catholic Online) -  The research used the latest data from the state's complex system of active geological faults, analyzing them and translated into approximation of earthquake occurrence with new methods, according to the Daily Mail. However, they reported that minor earthquakes are predicted to occur less often.

"We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century. But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas Fault system, making big quakes inevitable. The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect, so that we can better prepare," said an author of the study and Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, Tom Jordan.

Using the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), the study uncovered how the earthquakes will occur in the future, scattered across the state. It is California's latest earthquake-rupture forecast model.

"The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously," explained Ned Field, the study's lead author and a USGS scientist.

Through a tweet on Tuesday about the randomness of large earthquakes, Lucy Jones, a seismologist for the USGS and adviser to LA Mayor Eric Garcetti said that, "This new science doesn't change the bottom line for emergency managers, which one happens in our lifetimes is a random subset."

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