Excited for El Nino? Don't be, here's why...

California prepares for El Nino, but the preparations are deadly serious.

The El Nino continues to rage in the Equatorial Pacific, now reaching nearly six degrees Fahrenheit above normal. The hot blob of water is already affecting weather patterns and the Southwestern United States can expect a wet winter. The caveat of course, is that the rains will be punishing and even dangerous.

LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Californians with short memories are looking forward to the rainy season, as it will be heavily influenced by the El Nino. With the El Nino now among the three strongest such events in recorded history, a tremendous amount of rain is expected to fall on drought-stricken California.

Despite the drought however, the rain will quickly make itself unwelcome as it comes all at once and runs down hills, overflows banks, and overwhelms flood controls before running into the sea, uncaptured.

The Equatorial Pacific waters are 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, which is considerable when one considers how much stored energy that is, across such a vast area. All that energy must go somewhere, so it goes into storms.

El Nino isn't realized as just one storm, but rather a shift in global weather patterns. While most of the world experiences drought, and as a result crop failures and famine, California, in particular, is likely to see catastrophic flooding.

Southern California is normally quite dry, a literal desert. The region, and all its industry, from Hollywood to Disneyland, to sunny San Diego with its near-perfect weather, is watered by Sierra Nevada snowpack. As a result, Southern California has irrigation to deliver water from the mountains to the thirsty cities, but flood control from Fresno and Bakersfield in Central California to the Los Angeles basin is somewhat limited in its capacity. So a series of strong, badly-timed storms will overwhelm the channels, that normally direct the water to be captured or to the sea.

Urban flooding is a certainty in such occasions. And few Californians have flood insurance, given that Earthquakes are the ubiquitous threat, not flooding.

After the rains comes the threat of mudslides. After four years of drought and fires, topsoil rests loosely on hills and mountains, ready to tear loose in the first good rain. How many people are in the way? Already, a major mudslide on the I-5 north of Los Angeles destroyed dozens of vehicles on the freeway. Some 200,000 cubic yards of mud flooded the primary artery that connects Southern California to the rest of the state. By stroke of luck, no lives were lost.

Los Angeles can expect at least 60 percent more rainfall than usual, according to NOAA. Farther north, the quantities diminish, but they may still prove devastating. In the San Joaquin Valley, state and local officials have teamed with weather experts to hold hundreds of meetings, urging the public to prepare. From buying flood insurance to weatherizing homes and preparing neglected flood controls. Sandbags have been distributed in advance in places that are prone to flood damage.

Yet, all the rain will not ease the drought for much more than the year at hand. The quantity of snowpack in the Sierras is what will determine how well the state will do when normal conditions return. Although this El Nino may persist into the spring, it will not be enough water to compensate for four years of unregulated usage. Much of the water will seep into the ground and go uncaptured for immediate use. However, it may help recharge natural aquifers the Central Valley relies on, despite the fact it can take years for most of the water to filter down.

The Eastern Pacific has suffered one of the most active hurricane seasons on record. The deserts in Chile are abloom with flowers, when normally years pass without rain. However, according to the United Nations Children's Fund, 11 million children around the world are at risk because of this year's El Nino. They will suffer hunger, malnutrition, disease and a lack of drinking water.

California will see flooding and mudslides. Beaches will be battered, so while surfers will enjoy an amazing season, beachfront property owners will probably see some damage.

State residents are still asked to conserve water, at least through next fall. No matter how much snow falls, it certainly won't be enough to recharge the reservoirs. And El Ninos are commonly followed by La Ninas, which have the opposite effect. So drought will return to California come spring, and so the state and its residents will cope.

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