Don't tell the Democrats! The U.S. economy is surging
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The latest wage and unemployment figures contain good news for anyone rooting for the American economy; things look great from here.
The U.S. economy continues to flourish.
LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) - The U.S. economy continues to grow, maintaining the bull run which began in late 2008. The economy is enjoying the longest period of expansion in history.
The economy added 225,000 jobs in January, and average hourly earnings rose about 0.2 percent.
The growth opens the possibility of a Fed rate hike in the near-term. The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates to keep inflation at bay and to rebuild its war chest in the event of an economic downturn.
There are plenty of naysayers predicting doom. Expert economists, and even a number of CEOs say they expect a recession within the next year or so. Part of the reason is a gambler's fallacy, the idea that dice or numbers have memory, and sooner or later a losing result will appear. But the Trump economy has defied all expectations.
This is bad news for Democratic challengers to Donald Trump. Generally, incumbent presidents only lose when the economy has faltered. Even then, voters tend to favor the incumbent. For socialists like Bernie Sanders, the good economic news is bad news, it means few people will want to tinker with the economic establishment when it is delivering jobs and raises. The Democratic establishment will face difficulty spreading discontent when people are busy working and cashing checks.
The best way to create conservative voters is to employ people in a productive economy.
Still, there are black swans out there, unforeseeable events that can change everything. Recessions cannot be predicted with accuracy. If they could be foreseen, they could be avoided. Some have worried that the coronivirus outbreak in China could be one such black swan. As the disease spreads and quarantines are established, factories may be forced to close. But so far, the economic impact of coronavirus has been minimal. The growth in the United States seems to continue regardless of the virus.
For now, there is much to praise. Workplaces are hiring and giving raises. And while these conditions could reverse in a matter of days, this is always a possibility. And for now, it is a possibility that's hard to imagine.
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