Famous investor predicts '100 percent chance of recession' in 2016
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One economist believes there is a 100 percent chance of a recession in the U.S. economy before the end of this year. Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings made the dire prediction on Bloomberg TV.
LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) - Jim Rogers is a famous investor known for speaking on investments and economics. He lives in Singapore, but pays very close attention to the U.S. markets.
During an interview on Bloomberg TV with Guy Johnson, Rogers said there is a 100 percent chance of a recession in the U.S. before the end of the year.
Rogers explained, "It's been seven years, eight years since we had the last recession in the U.S., and normally, historically we have them every four to seven years for whatever reason-at least we always have. It doesn't have to happen in four to seven years, but look at the debt, the debt is staggering."
Although Rogers did not explain what would trigger this recession, he was confident that the numbers supported his claim.
"If you look at the ... payroll tax figures, you see they're already flat. Don't pay attention to the government numbers, pay attention to the real numbers," he admonished.
Wall Street seems more optimistic about the chances of recession, with most analysts pegging the chance of recession before the end of the year at 1 in 3 or lower.
Still, the U.S. economy seems overdue for a recession, debt is rising, and wages are flat.
Other countries, such as China and the European Union, are struggling to keep their economies out of recession as fiscal disaster looms.
The bad news isn't that a recession could be imminent, but that the Federal Reserve is maintaining very low interest rates. Typically, the Fed will lower interest rates during a recession to get people borrowing and spending again, which provides an economic boost. But without the ability to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve is almost out of ammunition to fight a recession.
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