Skip to content

Will the Big One hit California in 2018? A new study suggests it is possible

By Marshall Connolly (Catholic Online)
11/22/2017 (3 weeks ago)
Catholic Online (

Study suggests big quakes may correlate with slowdowns in the Earth's rotation.

Californians have been warned to expect a major quake soon. But how soon is unclear, since the event is forecast between now and the next few decades. Now a pair of geophysicists have published a study that some say predicts the big one could hit California in 2018. 

Scientists predict a major quake will hit California soon, but soon could mean in thirty years, or it could

Scientists predict a major quake will hit California soon, but soon could mean in thirty years, or it could


By Marshall Connolly (Catholic Online)
Catholic Online (
11/22/2017 (3 weeks ago)

Published in Green

Keywords: Big One, earthquake, California, study, disaster, prediction, Earth, rotation

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) -- Earthquake prediction is the holy grail of science. It is one disaster that affects millions of people at a time, yet cannot be predicted. The best that can be done are automated warning systems that can stop trains and tell people to take cover, once the shaking starts. If scientists could find a way to predict an earthquake even just minutes before it started, thousands of lives could be saved each year. 

Some scientists have devoted their lives to studying what happens before earthquakes occur. One pair of geophysicists from the University of Montana, Rebecca Bendick and Roger Bilham, have discovered a notable correlation. They found that big quakes happen in clusters which appear in the historical record about every few decades. 

Upon further research, the pair found that the Earth's rotation slows down almost imperceptibly every few decades. The slowing of the planet's rotation changes the planet's shape by about one millimeter at the equator. The change is tiny, but the cumulative effect could be a critical amount of stress on already stressed faults. In clichĂ© terms, the slowdown could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. They discovered that the quakes seem to hit about five years following a slowdown. 

Notably, Russian researchers previously reached a similar conclusion in 2012.

It should be noted that correlation does not equal causation, and the researchers did not make any specific predictions or claims. 

However, it is easy to do the math and conclude that 2018 appears to be the year when all these quakes will strike. Indeed, several large quakes have hit the South Pacific in recent months. Those quakes are largely unnoticed by the world because they occur at sea and don't affect many people. 

Scientists have already discovered the San Andreas fault in California is "locked and loaded, and ready to roll." Other studies examining the historical frequency of large quakes show the fault is overdue for a major quake as of 2017. 

Could 2018 be the year the big one hits California?

As soon as Bendick and Bilham's study was published, several media outlets published stories with sensational headlines, predicting the spike in quakes for 2018. However, the study makes no such claim. In fact, Bendick has publicly apologized for the subsequent sensationalism and has downplayed the study. She warned that their work is about probabilities, not predictions. 

No link between a slowdown of the Earth's rotation and major quakes has yet been demonstrated. It could be there, but it hasn't been scientifically demonstrated yet. But the rough model makes sense. The planet slows, it takes about five years for the change to affect the crust, and any faults that are ready to go get a final push from it. 

For now, there is no way of telling. Even if the big one does hit in 2018, it would not prove much. Instead of worrying if 2018 is the year you should buy quake insurance, all people Californians living close to seismically active regions should buy it now. People should also have preparedness kits ready, stocked with canned food, water, a first aid kit, blankets, a battery operated radio, and other essential supplies. These kits can be homemade. A large, durable trashcan with a tight closing lid works well for these kits and should be stored where it can be easily accessed. 

Hopefully, none of these items will ever have to be used, but the reality is California is earthquake country and sooner rather than later, something will happen. It pays to be prepared in advance, no matter what the probabilities are. 

Light Your Prayer Candle Now


'Help give every student and teacher Free resources for a world-class moral Catholic education'

Copyright 2017 - Distributed by THE CALIFORNIA NETWORK

Pope Francis Prayer Intentions for OCTOBER 2017
Workers and the Unemployed.
That all workers may receive respect and protection of their rights, and that the unemployed may receive the opportunity to contribute to the common good.


More Green

How old is the longest living vertebrate on Earth? Much older than you know Watch

Image of The Greenland shark may hold the secret to a much longer life, but we will never know if we don't take better care of the oceans.

As humans, we live longer lives than most creatures on Earth. Tortoises and trees can live much longer than we can, but we are among the ... continue reading

Scientists in the dark about Yellowstone supervolcano, as activity increases Watch

Image of Volcanic activity is responsible for the beautiful sights around the park.

As the Yellowstone supervolcano shows evidence it remains active and is building towards eruption, scientists have confessed they have no ... continue reading

A Caribbean island is being devoured by plastic trash, and nobody knows what to do Watch

Image of The beaches of Roatan, Honduras are covered with trash following the rainy season.

In a series of shocking images, a Honduran island is besieged by plastic pollution, and nobody is sure what to do about the problem.  ... continue reading

Will the Big One hit California in 2018? A new study suggests it is possible Watch

Image of Scientists predict a major quake will hit California soon, but soon could mean in thirty years, or it could

Californians have been warned to expect a major quake soon. But how soon is unclear, since the event is forecast between now and the next ... continue reading

Has Pope Francis violated the 8th Commandment, speaking out against climate skeptics? Watch

Image of Pope Francis has made clear that care for creation is a major concern of the Church and humanity.

Pope Francis has issued a stinging rebuke against those who deny that human-caused global warming is real. He called the notion a "perverse ... continue reading

Never Miss any Updates!

Stay up to date with the latest news, information, and special offers.

Learn about Catholic world

Catholic Online
Inform - Inspire - Ignite

Catholic Online Saints
Your saints explained

Catholic Online Prayers
Prayers for every need

Catholic Online Bible
Complete bible online

Catholic Online News
Your news Catholic eye

Daily Reading
Today's bible reading

Lent / Easter
Death & resurrection of Jesus

Advent / Christmas
Birth of Jesus

Rest of Catholic Online
All Catholic world we offer

Products and services we offer

Catholic Online Shopping
Catholic medals, gifts & books

The California Network
Inspiring streaming service

Advertise on Catholic Online
Your ads on

Catholic Online Email
Email with Catholic feel

Catholic Online Singles
Safe, secure Catholic dating

The California Studios
World-class post production service

Learn the Catholic way

Catholic Online School
Free Catholic education for all

Student Classes
K-12 & Adult Education Classes

Catholic Online MasterClass
Learn from experts

School Teachers
Teacher lesson plans & resources

Catholic Media Missionaries
The New Evangelization

Support Free Education
Tax deductible support Free education

Connect with us online

Catholic Online on Facebook
Catholic social network

Catholic Online on Twitter
Catholic Tweets

Catholic Online on YouTube
Enjoy our videos

Catholic Online on Instagram
Shared Catholic moments

Catholic Online on Pinterest
Catholic ideas style inspiration

Catholic Online Logo

Copyright 2017 Catholic Online. All materials contained on this site, whether written, audible or visual are the exclusive property of Catholic Online and are protected under U.S. and International copyright laws, © Copyright 2017 Catholic Online. Any unauthorized use, without prior written consent of Catholic Online is strictly forbidden and prohibited.