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ELECTION: Hyper-accurate model predicts Romney win in November!
By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
August 24th, 2012
Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)
August 24th, 2012
Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)
Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States according to a computer model that has correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1980. A University of Colorado model that is run every election year is forecasting that the former Massachusetts governor will be our next president.
DENVER, CO (Catholic Online) - Professors who work the model say the key is the economy. Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of CU Denver say their model takes into account a number of economic factors including unemployment rates and real per captia income.
When these factors are accounted for, the model predicts that Romney will win in every one of the swing states he needs to garner both 52.9 percent of the popular vote as well as the electoral votes to score a narrow victory over President Barack Obama.
According to Berry, on the University of Colorado Boulder website, "For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner. The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it's the former, the president may receive credit for the economy's trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008."
The model Bickers and Berry uses is so accurate that it correctly predicted the outcome of the 2000 election when Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote to George W. Bush.
The model also suggests that's ome things might not be as important as the candidates presently believe. "In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had any statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party's national convention; the home state of the vice president; or the partisanship of state governors," their website explained.
However, the professors say Romney should not pen his acceptance speech just yet. They added that the economic data they used is now five months old, and that new data from September will be used to make a final prediction in advance of the November 6 elections. They also stressed that the close nature of this election could cause the results to fall in either direction.
Models and predictions aside, Romney does have a lot going for him. The Republican base has been energized by his vice-presidential pick and his campaign continues to raise more money than Obama. A concentrated blitz designed to win swing voters should clench the presidency for Romney.
Meanwhile, Obama has the advantage of incumbency, and a series of debates between now and November 6 may also influence voters.
© 2012, Distributed by NEWS CONSORTIUM.
© 2012, Distributed by NEWS CONSORTIUM.