Death of the Republican Party. Republican autopsy and why the race was lost
Republican strategy failed to appeal to Catholics, other key demographics.
As Republicans autopsy the election, they are learning just where and how their campaign to elect Mitt Romney went wrong. So far, very few analysts seem to agree, but there are some eyebrow raising numbers.
No successful candidate can afford to ignore the Catholic vote.
PrintLOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Obama picked up three large blocks of the American population. He won support from more than 90 percent of the black population and about 70 percent of the Hispanic population. Finally, he won the all-important women's vote.
Obama also did well with youth voters, garnering a majority from those under 44. All other major demographics voted with Romney. The religious sided with the challenger, giving him 60 percent of their vote.
Interestingly, the Catholic vote went to Obama. Despite a virtual declaration of war between the Obama administration and the Catholic Church, Obama still won the 10 largest Catholic states in the union.
The reason why Obama did so well with these populations is because he targeted them and their concerns quite deliberately. More importantly, many minority voters have trouble identifying with the Republican Party, which they see as conservative and overwhelmingly white.
The minority population is also growing more rapidly than the white population, per captia. That means minority voters now make up a larger share of the electorate than ever before. In 1996, only 10 percent of voters were non-whites. In 2012, that number has more than doubled to 21 percent.
In fact, minority voters may not be minorities for much longer. In states such as California, whites are now less than 50 percent of the population.
These demographics reveal that Romney's weak appeal to minorities was a costly factor. His late appeal to women did gain him some ground, but not enough to win him the election.
Interestingly, the Catholic swing vote, which was predicted months in advance, went to Obama, despite pleas and warnings from Church officials to parishioners that a vote for Obama would be a vote against themselves.
So why would so many people willingly vote against their self-interest?
The answer lies in Romney's campaign, and in particular, what it failed to do. Romney's campaign focused on white, middle and upper class citizens, particularly males. This bore fruit for him. Most of this demographic supported his bid.
However, Romney seemed to alienate key parts of the electorate. In previous campaigns, these elements could be sacrificed to appeal to the base, but no more. The fact is, blacks, Hispanics, women, and Catholics have arrived. They now wield significant political power. Subordinating their issues to traditional, main-stream issues, such as those frequently espoused by the tea party, for example, is a losing recipe.
The message to Republicans, who spent a billion dollars appealing to their core demographic, is a troubling one. The Republican shift to the right is a bankrupt position. It may still serve politicos in primaries and local, or even state elections, but at a national level, the (now-infamous) pivot to the middle made famous by a Romney manager, is much more important. It needs to happen even before the race begins. It needs to start NOW.
Appeals made during the primary matter. Romney's comment about the "47 percent" resonated with many in the black and Hispanic communities, whose populations tend to be poorer than those in the white demographic. Many blacks and Hispanics say they felt Romney was speaking about them or their neighbors when he made that comment, although Romney never elaborated on this.
In the future, Republicans cannot afford to ignore these populations in national races. Of course, to be fair, these populations weren't entirely ignored, but they weren't courted either. More importantly, the Republican Party entirely must do more to fold these people into their base long before election cycles begin.
And the Catholic vote, the one key that has proven decisive in several previous elections, simply cannot be ignored. This demographic, possibly above all others, should be targeted with great enthusiasm. Catholics make natural Republicans as far as the party clearly supports the three non-negotiable issues set forth by Pope Benedict XVI, which are life, marriage and family, and authentic human freedom.
However, to get the Catholic vote, and the votes of those in the other demographics, the party will have to pivot more to the center on some issues. For example, Republican support of the death penalty and an emphasis on draconian cuts to social services will have to be moderated.
If the Republican Party can moderate its message and appeal to these demographics, then it stands a good chance of emerging victorious the next time around. However, if the party leadership remains stubbornly attached to the tea party base and fails to broaden its appeals, then its leadership can look forward to more money wasted and more head scratching as the Democrats seize greater chunks of power.
© 2012, Distributed by NEWS CONSORTIUM.
Obama also did well with youth voters, garnering a majority from those under 44. All other major demographics voted with Romney. The religious sided with the challenger, giving him 60 percent of their vote.
Interestingly, the Catholic vote went to Obama. Despite a virtual declaration of war between the Obama administration and the Catholic Church, Obama still won the 10 largest Catholic states in the union.
The reason why Obama did so well with these populations is because he targeted them and their concerns quite deliberately. More importantly, many minority voters have trouble identifying with the Republican Party, which they see as conservative and overwhelmingly white.
The minority population is also growing more rapidly than the white population, per captia. That means minority voters now make up a larger share of the electorate than ever before. In 1996, only 10 percent of voters were non-whites. In 2012, that number has more than doubled to 21 percent.
In fact, minority voters may not be minorities for much longer. In states such as California, whites are now less than 50 percent of the population.
These demographics reveal that Romney's weak appeal to minorities was a costly factor. His late appeal to women did gain him some ground, but not enough to win him the election.
Interestingly, the Catholic swing vote, which was predicted months in advance, went to Obama, despite pleas and warnings from Church officials to parishioners that a vote for Obama would be a vote against themselves.
So why would so many people willingly vote against their self-interest?
The answer lies in Romney's campaign, and in particular, what it failed to do. Romney's campaign focused on white, middle and upper class citizens, particularly males. This bore fruit for him. Most of this demographic supported his bid.
However, Romney seemed to alienate key parts of the electorate. In previous campaigns, these elements could be sacrificed to appeal to the base, but no more. The fact is, blacks, Hispanics, women, and Catholics have arrived. They now wield significant political power. Subordinating their issues to traditional, main-stream issues, such as those frequently espoused by the tea party, for example, is a losing recipe.
The message to Republicans, who spent a billion dollars appealing to their core demographic, is a troubling one. The Republican shift to the right is a bankrupt position. It may still serve politicos in primaries and local, or even state elections, but at a national level, the (now-infamous) pivot to the middle made famous by a Romney manager, is much more important. It needs to happen even before the race begins. It needs to start NOW.
Appeals made during the primary matter. Romney's comment about the "47 percent" resonated with many in the black and Hispanic communities, whose populations tend to be poorer than those in the white demographic. Many blacks and Hispanics say they felt Romney was speaking about them or their neighbors when he made that comment, although Romney never elaborated on this.
In the future, Republicans cannot afford to ignore these populations in national races. Of course, to be fair, these populations weren't entirely ignored, but they weren't courted either. More importantly, the Republican Party entirely must do more to fold these people into their base long before election cycles begin.
And the Catholic vote, the one key that has proven decisive in several previous elections, simply cannot be ignored. This demographic, possibly above all others, should be targeted with great enthusiasm. Catholics make natural Republicans as far as the party clearly supports the three non-negotiable issues set forth by Pope Benedict XVI, which are life, marriage and family, and authentic human freedom.
However, to get the Catholic vote, and the votes of those in the other demographics, the party will have to pivot more to the center on some issues. For example, Republican support of the death penalty and an emphasis on draconian cuts to social services will have to be moderated.
If the Republican Party can moderate its message and appeal to these demographics, then it stands a good chance of emerging victorious the next time around. However, if the party leadership remains stubbornly attached to the tea party base and fails to broaden its appeals, then its leadership can look forward to more money wasted and more head scratching as the Democrats seize greater chunks of power.
© 2012, Distributed by NEWS CONSORTIUM.
- - -
Pope Benedict XVI's Prayer Intentions for January 2013
General Intention: The Faith of Christians. That in this Year of Faith Christians may deepen their knowledge of the mystery of Christ and witness joyfully to the gift of faith in him.
Missionary Intention: Middle Eastern Christians. That the Christian communities of the Middle East, often discriminated against, may receive from the Holy Spirit the strength of fidelity and perseverance.
Keywords: Catholics, catholic vote, Republicans, Democrats, election, 2012, Mitt Romney, strategy
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To susan: Here I have copied your post:
Problems with catholics is they want it ALL. They want to be catholic but take their birth control pills every morning. They are afraid to put all their trust in GOD. The Hispanic catholic does not have a clue!!! they are first ones in mass on sunday but do not practice their faith after they leave the pews. They are to afraid they will loose their FREE STUFF.They are intimidated at the health clinics they go to , the welfare they recieve as many have told me We do not stand a chance so will take it anyway we can the RICH are evil I can not succeed on my own Always victims!!! I know I am hispanic , but not a victim. Until we put our trust in GOD we will always be free to be used by evil. Being Catholic means being tuff being accountable Fight for what really matters in our lives GOD AND OUR VALUES FIRST
I am Hispanic LEGAL - several generations in. I do NOT think abortion is good. I voted Democrat because while I dont agree with illegal immigration, I don't think that the "minutemen" and "tea Party" who want to KILL them are Christian AT ALL (they are HUMANS - Gods humans) and think this CIVIL wrong deserves them to be called "Heathens" or treated like rats. While at the same time - we see the Madoff ponzi schemes, Profits & Jobs going overseas, Mitt romeny did not pay taxes for what 10 - 15 years (Charitible Trusts that never seem to show up at Hurricane Sandy or Haiti relief- always the rockers & liberals helping out the victims), Racists remarks (things I would never hear Jesus say), PLUS Accounting Fraud and other Corporate accounting tricks, Non Living wages, etc. .... When you google "Accounting Fraud" "ponzi schemes" "Libor Bank rate scandal" "Bank bribery" etc. - which political party do you think most of those guys come from?
ALL of my family and friends WORK, but some (in construction) have needed help now and again - especially AFTER the economy TANKED in 2007-08 - remember that? What do you think CAUSED it? ALSO, they can hardly AFFORD health insuracne for their families - if you get state health care, disability, student loans, social security, unemployment, etc. AND you voted GOP - you are basically a hypocrite IMHO.
So, abortion is legal and so is the death penalty in some states. Mother Thresa said once (basically): "I will not go to a rally AGAINST war, but I will go to a Peace rally" What this very smart lady was saying is that you need to tell people where you want them TO GO not just where NOT TO GO. So, my opinion is that if you want to decrease abortion, then you have to put all your time and energy INTO making it easier for women to HAVE thier babies - increase financial assistance for adoption, increase help for mothers to raise their children (GOP wants to reduce public assistance) and take the shame away from making mistakes. (I am of the opinion that most abortion is for two reasons: 1. money & 2. shame for making a mistake) I get so angry when I see the anti-abortion protestors and their anger ... I'd rather see them all putting htier time and energy to helping pregnant moms get through the pregnancy and more people offering to adopt.
I am not a fan of gays, but they are HUMANS first and foremost. I worry about their health and I don't think my religion gives me the option of being a Jerk to another Human being. I agree that my church doesn't have to accept the GLBT community in marriage, but the United States is not the Catholic Church either. Even Jesus hung out with people out of the main stream of life. THAT is what Jesus would do IMHO. Did Jesus ever call people the things you hear from the Tea Party?
WWJD? He would Love EVERYONE - and if you hate the democrats, Hispanics etc. - I am having a hard time believing that YOU are a Christian. I don't think I'd ever see Jesus sitting on the border with a rifle trying to kill people - like the minutemen & tea party.
"Render unto Cesar" - When people hide their money to avoid taxes - what is that? When people do accounting fraud - what is that? When people are racist - what is that? When people do not believe in banking regulations that bring down the worldwide economy - what is that?
Finally, what if I showed up to church next Sunday with a gun in my hand and handed out guns to every woman man and child in church and we all sat there listening to the words of Jesus while feeling the cold steel of a gun in our hands ... would Jesus like that - is that a Christain value? Count me out if you think we need MORE guns in society.
I think it is a "weighing" of the options. I am not a one issue voter.
I am Catholic, Hispanic, and well-educated (doctorate) ... I vote Democrat.
If the church does not think I am a good Catholic because I vote Democrat, then we definately have some things to discuss. I am NOT a one issue voter and we have TOO many guns in America too!
It was a VERY helpful article. I am EXTREMELY confused about my Catholic religion today. I have been a Catholic all of my life (50 years) and today is the FIRST time in my life that I have considered choosing another church. It was difficult to defend my church through its legal troubles of the past - but, I did so. However, today I am questioning things due to the recent elections. I always voted Democrat mostly because I believe that the Democrat party most closely embodies the principles I thought Jesus would ... Love everyone, heal anyone, offer comfort to strangers, fight for the poor and oppressed, and turn the other cheek .. basically ... I do not agree with abortion (although I did as a younger person) and this is the one thing I would like to change in general. But, the "Tea Party" & "Minutemen" and their immigration (shoot them at the border) policies, tax rates (effective - not stated), and lack of healthcare, disdain of the poor and working class and arming the whole country with guns (?) .... well, I could go on ... But, basically THESE GOP policies made me a Democrat.
What I have felt recently though is that my church seems to be espousing Political ideas in MASS - specifically Republican ideas you know. So, I am confused now. I feel that the church is telling me that I am "stupid" for voting Democrat - and that is making me VERY sad and upset. I am well-educated (Doctorate) and try so very hard to be a good person ... However, I am considering another church and that is so disturbing to me - I have never felt this way before :(
The essence of this article is: For Republicans to become relevant, they must become Democrats. Moving to the "center" on welfare programs is, in effect, moving to the far left in economic sanity. We, as a country, are about to be $20 Trillion in debt. We will never recover from that debt and the putative beneficiaries of our massive welfare programs will end up the ultimate losers, when (I said WHEN, not IF) we fall into the fiscal abyss.
Rob and All Who post on this board: Please look at two CO Homily Videos. One is dated Oct. 31, entitled: Calling Good Evil. The other is dated, Nov. 15, entitled: Two Motives For Doing Good.
The first one is directed at the way ANY Catholic should have voted, and why. Also Rob, stating our responsibility as Catholics in this world of today. He said it much better than I did trying to explain it to you.
The second one I think should speak to us all. Taking the first video much farther on how we might proceed in our dilemma. Food to contemplate anyway. Blessings...
As i read so many of the comments about the election, i must admit i am a democrat, but could not vote for Obama, Nor could i vote for Romney, so i picked one of the remaining 2.
as a Roman Catholic, I found myself voting against platforms, rather than for, as it was in the
past. I feel we must now all come together as Americans, and We The People have to let the
congress & govt know what we want....we cannot have a nation divided, it is anti-Christian!!!
I pray to the Blessed Mother as the Patron of the USA to direct and guide all of us in our
daily lives, with goals that will get rid of racism,poverty,war, greed, and give aid and comfort
to the aging, sick, decent healthcare for all! We must be responsible & get more involved with
our local religious churches,& local community action centers, and work together!!!! God created all of us, and He is there for us. He will guide anyone who asks!!!!! Be not afraid!!!!!!!
Rob, I know exactly how you feel. And I can tell you I agree to a point. When I say to a point, I mean that is our responsibility as Catholics, as citizens, to be a concerned participator in government, as much as it is to be a Practicing Catholic. We have one foot on earth and one foot in heaven. Suppose to have anyway. Since we are here, on earth, we live with everyone as it has always been. But, WE are suppose to make a difference to others. The way we live, think, and act. Morals and ethics. And then after all is said and done, we rely in the final analysis on "Thy Will Be Done."
Since we still are living, and have the where with all to try to do better, we do it.
Are we saying the same thing? Blessings
I have seen in writing many times over the last week that, due to the election last week, our country and our Church are in trouble. Stepping back and considering history, don't you find that just a bit dramatic? Over the last few decades, presidential elections have produced more doomsday rhetoric than any Protestant minister I have known over my lifetime (I was raised Protestant, joining the Catholic Church well into adulthood).
The Liberal establishment predicted doom and gloom after the election of Ronald Reagan, yet little seems to have changed. The Conservative establishment predicted the doom of the U.S. after the election of Bill Clinton, yet here we are with little changed. Once more, the Liberal establishment predicted doom after the election of George W. Bush while the Conservative establishment is predicting doom with the re-election of Obama. And I suspect that there will be predictions of "the end" after the next fifty presidential elections.
I think American Christians are incredibly melodramatic and need to "get a grip". Christianity has survived far worse in historically, so I am not worried about Obama in the least. As for the U.S., I think the biggest threat is the incessant bickering and waving our fists in each other's face. I read earlier this morning that there are a number of states that are actually requesting to be allowed to secede from the U.S. To borrow a phrase from my grandmother, "Grow up!".
Possibly the worst analysis of the election results to date. It was a very close race, not a landslide, not a mandate. The Catholic clergy is to blame for the disaster that awaits faithful Catholics. When half your flock is in open schism and you pretend it's all OK because they sit in pews (or don't), and give you a few bucks every week but use contraception, have abortions, and ignore your teachings because you don't teach them, what do you expect? There are no consequences or even mild criticism for being a heretic. Priests no longer give homilies exhorting Catholics to adhere to church teachings. Witness "Catholic" politicians: Joe Biden is example number one. Haven't seen anything critical of him from USCCB yet! Oh please! Please stop persecuting us because we want government money for our outreach programs! Please! "Gimme, Gimme, Gimme" is not our national motto, it's, "E Pluribus Unum".
Hispanics, are not immigrants, they're invading aliens who don't care one whit about this country and no amount of laws will make them "faithful citizens". They vote for handouts, subsidies and for the guy who will provide them. Read Heather MacDonald's National Review piece to understand their perspective - it isn't American at all. This is what happens when the U.S. refuses to enforce immigration laws. I won't be contributing my hard earned money to help those people to do anything but go back to their countries - get the heck out. Blacks were already voting for a black man because they have been indoctrinated from birth with the message of hatred of everyone and everything that isn't black.
Admittedly, I have not read all the comments. I am a member of the Tea Party and I reject the theory that the Republican Party lost the election because it is too closely tied to the Tea Party. Quite the contrary. Anecdotal evidence: Romney was never on the Mark Levin show or several others. Sarah Palin did not speak at the convention. Michelle Bachmann reportedly received little financial support from the Party. The Republican establishment and Romney are anything but beholden to the Tea Party. The shellacking of 2010 which turned the House Republican was largely a Tea Party success. The Republican House is now almost all that stands between us and tyranny.
The Catholic Church sends mixed signals. The American bishops are Libs on many issues. I am embarrassed that once again Catholics helped elect Obama, the worst, most pro-death president of my lifetime. It makes me think that I belong to the wrong denomination. The dissonance is exemplified by Notre Dame giving Obama an honorary law degree, despite the protests of many (including myself), and now being part of a lawsuit trying to fend off Obama's assaults on religious freedom. That, my Catholic brothers and sisters, is madness.
Judy, I think many just have stopped believing that the opposition party will really do anything about it. Allowing something to be on the books for 40 years, no matter the reason, is a scandal all it's own. Our worsening fiscal situation will probably do more to stop organizations like planned parenthood than our politicians ever will.
Personally I think this was a message to stop putting so much faith in politics. We have to get better at our ground game for life. Protesting at an abortion mill is great, but are the number of volunteers at a crisis center greater? Are we giving women hope or are we merely shaking our fists at the abortionist?
I do not think we should put any faith in Caesar to solve this problem. As far as I can tell, Jesus didn't spend a whole lot of time worrying about the emperor. Maybe we shouldn't either? Personally, I think I'm done with all of it. Like Rove's $300 million dollar spend that went no where, focusing so much time and energy on politics seems to be going nowhere as well.