Skip to content
Catholic Online Logo

By Marshall Connolly (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

8/29/2013 (1 year ago)

Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)

High cost, opposition, and little promise of return.

Two days ago, I wrote a report predicting what would happen in Syria when Obama orders military strikes to start. At that time, Secretary of State John Kerry had just gone live on television to make the case for military intervention in Syria. Since then, it appears that the momentum behind an attack has stalled. Why?

Obama would be well served to reconsider his plans to strike Syria. They may cost much more than he realizes.

Obama would be well served to reconsider his plans to strike Syria. They may cost much more than he realizes.

Highlights

By Marshall Connolly (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)

8/29/2013 (1 year ago)

Published in U.S.

Keywords: Assad, Syria, Obama, bombing, why, time, timetable, what will happen


LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - There are several reasons why Obama has stayed his military hand from striking Syria. None of them are a lack of will or resolve on his part, but rather the result of intense outside political pressure and circumstances.

An inspection team from the United Nations is still present on the ground in Damascus. Those inspectors could become targets for the regime or rebels in the wake of a U.S. attack. Since those inspectors must deal with both rebel and regime authorities as they transit the country, they are vulnerable to the changing whims of both.

Note that Al Qaeda-friendly units such as the Al Nusra brigade believe they too will be targets in the event of a U.S. strike.

A U.S. strike could also damage infrastructure and give the Assad regime a reason to detain, or at least delay the departure of inspectors.

Obama has already denied a UN request that inspectors be given through Sunday to complete their investigation. This suggests Obama is anxious to order the attack. In my previous article, I mentioned that Obama will be traveling on Tuesday to the G8 summit in Russia where he will meet with Russian leaders including Vladimir Putin. It would certainly be an awkward meeting should bombings be happening as the the G8 summit occurs.

The new likely window for the attack then, is Saturday through Monday, local time.

For command and control reasons, it is unlikely that Obama will order an attack while he is out of the Oval Office. If an attack does not happen before Monday, it will not likely come at all.

And an attack may not come the more time that passes. Although Britain and France have signaled their support for a strike, virtually every other world leader has called for patience and peace including Pope Francis and the Bishop of Antioch, Gregory III.

Some leaders have gone farther and warned of unforeseen consequences. Iran has signaled its readiness to aid Syria by striking against Israel as a proxy target for the U.S.

Syria has said it will follow suit. It is believed the terrorist groups, Hamas and Al Qaeda may retaliate with terror attacks against Israel too. This complicates the strike calculus. Although Israel isn't likely a direct player, it is the closest ally in the region and perhaps the greatest enemy of Iran, Syria, and various terrorist organizations. In fact, Israel is the primary motivation for Islamic terrorism.

Al Qaeda has its own theories about a U.S. strike, with word spreading across the region that any strikes will start with Syrian military targets, then continue with a second wave against Al Qaeda-friendly brigades in Syria. They have warned their loyalists to take cover and prepare.

Russia has warned that U.S. intervention would also provoke consequences from them. Without specifying a threat, the Russian government has warned against a strike in a region they feel is within their sphere of influence. While military action is possible, the most likely response from Russia would be condemnation and a vow of renewed support for the Assad regime.
The Obama administration clearly believes they can implement a single quick strike that will punish the Assad regime and aid the Free Syrian Army without inflicting major civilian casualties or toppling his regime. This may be true, in which case Obama may get away with launching a limited strike.

Syrian allies may not want to become involved in a wider conflict with the U.S. and the U.N. Will not likely do anything against the United States. In fact their recent statements and the early termination of the investigation suggests the UN is as resigned to the attacks.

The real resistance to Obama may be entirely domestic. The consensus view expressed by Congress and pundits alike, is that Obama does not have the authority to order a strike on Syria without an imminent threat to the United States. Congress has asked Obama to call an emergency session so they can vote on authorizing a strike.

Obama has refused.

There is finally, the issue of just what the strikes will really accomplish. Assad know the attacks are coming. Syrian civilians have fearfully cleared store shelves in preparation and those who can are distancing themselves from potential military and regime targets.

The Syrian military is also probably moving its assets around to make targeting by cruise missiles difficult. Cruise missiles require advanced targeting and are designed to destroy fixed, soft targets such as radar sites and SAM sites, but not mobile units.

Cruise missiles are not well suited to busting deep bunkers either. Warehouses are easy targets, but bunkers hewn into mountains and caves are more difficult to penetrate. Assad is probably moving both mobile assets and troops to make them difficult to hit.

Inside sources from the military have already said they do not intend to target Assad's chemical weapons stores for fear of collateral damage.

At this point, with opposition well stated and the likelihood of the unforeseen consequences being a significant possibility, Obama may hold off on ordering a strike after all. For the moment, there is little promise of return and a great promise of consequence.

The President would be well served by thinking twice.

---


Pope Francis: end world hunger through 'Prayer and Action'


© 2014 - Distributed by THE NEWS CONSORTIUM

Pope Francis Prayer Intentions for November 2014
Lonely people:
That all who suffer loneliness may experience the closeness of God and the support of others.
Mentors of seminarians and religious: That young seminarians and religious may have wise and well-formed mentors.



Comments


More U.S.

What is 'vape?' The Oxford Dictionary proclaims it the new word for 2014 Watch

Image of Even while media outlets, health organizations and scientific studies continue to debate the benefits and pitfalls of e-cigarettes,

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

What does the word "vape" mean? Before anyone jumps to negative conclusions and think that it means something untoward - rest assured: vape is both a noun and verb, according to the Oxford Dictionary. They've gone as far as to proclaim vape as their new word of ... continue reading


Meet the doll that's flipping the world upside down! Watch

Image of Lammily, is a new doll that is proportioned just like the average American 19-year old woman.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

A simple art project by a graphic designer has become the most coveted toy for the 2014 Christmas season following its November 19 release. LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Nickolay Lamm made a doll he named Lammily, who is what Barbie would look like if she was ... continue reading


The Bloody Battle of Tarawa in 20 extraordinary photos Watch

Image of U.S. Marines advance while under fire from Japanese defensive positions.

By Robert Mullen (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

The Battle of Tarawa was one of the bloodiest and costliest battles to the U.S. in WWII in terms of men lost per time spent in combat. During the 76 hour battle from November 20-23, 1943, on that small Pacific Island, about 1,700 U.S. personnel were killed, and ... continue reading


What's the biggest danger to America? It's not nukes and it isn't terrorism Watch

Image of China is well known to have an extensive cyberwarfare program, and often utilizes civilian hackers as well as its own military personnel.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

The head of the National Security Agency revealed to a Congressional panel that China and "probably one or two other" countries have the ability to shut down the nation's power grid and other critical infrastructures through cyberwarfare. LOS ANGELES, CA ... continue reading


Massive collection of Catholic artifacts leave Italy for the first time in 700 years: Their destination? The Big Apple! Watch

Image of For the first time in 700 years, artifacts of St. Francis of Assisi will be removed from Italy. They will be put on display in New York during November, December and January.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

An exhibit of medieval manuscripts and papal documents that have close ties with St. Francis of Assisi will be held at the United Nations in New York from November 17 to the 28. LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - The exhibition is titled "Friar Francis: Traces, ... continue reading


Obama gives amnesty while bracing for next 'surge' of illegals in 2015 Watch

Image of Children in holding facilities during 2014, a year where the surge of illegal children occurred.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

While President Obama has revealed his plans to shield about five million illegal immigrants from deportation, he has federal agencies getting ready for another mass surge of illegal immigrants during the spring of 2015. LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - As ... continue reading


Obama declares all out war on Republicans over immigration reform Watch

Image of President Obama is expected to give a speech on November 20, outlining his plans to execute immigration reform via executive action.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

Even after warnings from sitting and incoming House and Senate Republicans that unilateral action on immigration reform from President Barack Obama would not be tolerated, the president has gone ahead and outlined a plan to relax the rules and regulations of U.S. ... continue reading


The Marriage Meme of Francis: What Did the Pope Just Say about Marriage and Family? Watch

Image of Pope Francis presiding at a marriage Liturgy at St Peters.

By Deacon Keith A Fournier

Pope Francis embraces the unchangeable truth about marriage as solely between one man and one woman, intended for life, open to life and formative of family as the sole Meme - using the word properly.  That is why you will not read much about the crystal ... continue reading


Another black eye for Democrats: Obamacare architect makes off with $6 million in taxpayer money Watch

Image of New videos released in November show that the architect behind the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, holds nothing but contempt for the American people.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

The architect of the fiasco that has been the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Jonathan Gruber, was paid about $6 million in taxpayer money between 2009 and 2014. LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - This is about 24 times what an average, full-time American worker would ... continue reading


See the list of MOST FREE countries in the world, the results will surprise you! Watch

Image of Land of the Free no more, Americans report a significant decline in personal freedom under the Obama administration.

By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)

America is supposed to be the land of the free, so Americans themselves might be surprised to see that the United States actually ranks fairly low on the index of personal freedom when compared to other nations. Instead of occupying the number 1 spot, the USA has ... continue reading


All U.S. News

Newsletters

Newsletter Sign Up icon

Stay up to date with the latest news, information, and special offers

Daily Readings

Reading 1, Revelation 11:4-12
4 These are the two olive trees and the two lamps in ... Read More

Psalm, Psalms 144:1, 2, 9-10
1 [Of David] Blessed be Yahweh, my rock, who trains ... Read More

Gospel, Luke 20:27-40
27 Some Sadducees -- those who argue that there is no ... Read More

Saint of the Day

Saint of the Day for November 22nd, 2014 Image

St. Cecilia
November 22: In the fourth century appeared a Greek religious romance on the ... Read More

Inform, Inspire & Ignite Logo

Find Catholic Online on Facebook and get updates right in your live feed.

Become a fan of Catholic Online on Facebook


Follow Catholic Online on Twitter and get News and Product updates.

Follow us on Twitter