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No, a heatwave didn't just melt the North Pole

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It's time to change the nature of the debate about global warming.

Over the weekend, temperatures at the North Pole spiked to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. That's quite a heatwave, even for temperate zones. But how newsworthy is this event and is it a cause for concern?

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Shown: a heatwave in the Arctic.

Shown: a heatwave in the Arctic.

LOS ANGELES, CA (California Network) -- A heatwave warmed the Arctic this weekend with temperatures spiking to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in some places. One weather station on the northern end of Greenland, Cape Morris Jessup, reached 35F, a little above freezing. The North Pole however, remained colder. At this time of year, the average temperature is around 26 to 28 degrees Fahrenheit below zero.

At that temperature, even a heatwave of 20 degrees above average, the climate still remains in a deep freeze. There are few consequences to such a heatwave, since the temperature remains well below freezing. One storm does not make for a global catastrophe.


However, what has scientists concerned is the fact this is the third such storm of the year, and it has made its way all the way to the North Pole. Warm storms do enter the Arctic all the time, but it is very rare for them to reach the pole.

At the same time the storm was reaching the North Pole, Arctic ice extent is at a historic low, just shy of 13 million square kilometers. An average measurement would be closer to 15 million square kilometers, so the Arctic is below two standard deviations.

Arctic sea ice levels since 1979. The red arrow points to the record low 2017 level. The green dashed line is 2012. The 2017 measurement is well below average.

Arctic sea ice levels since 1979. The red arrow points to the record low 2017 level. The green dashed line is 2012. The 2017 measurement is well below average.


The 2016 year, which saw an El Nino in the Pacific, is one of the warmest years on record.

It is most likely that the El Nino, combined with decades of global warming, have caused the heatwave in the Arctic.

But perspective needs to be introduced. Earth has warmed by 2 degrees Fahrenheit since the 19th century. Last year was only a fraction of a degree warmer than 2015. And Arctic sea ice is at a record low, but only since 1979 when records were finally kept. And even a twenty-degree heatwave isn't enough to that the ice, at least not in February.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the temperature at Cape Morris Jessup reached 35 degrees Fahrenheit. You'll still want a jacket.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the temperature at Cape Morris Jessup reached 35 degrees Fahrenheit. You'll still want a jacket.


Herein lies the problem. The planet is warming, but the process is by such small degrees that it can hardly be appreciated unless we examine long-term trends. When plotted over the long term, the pace of change is the most dramatic fact.

The climate is changing fast enough that is it contributing to an extinction rate that is 100 times the background rate of species extinction.  Dozens go extinct each day. The problem with extinctions is if a keystone species that is essential to the food chain collapses, then the impacts could be devastating.

There are also problems with shifting climates causing problems for farmers and others who rely on the land and climate for their survival. The Inuit are intimately familiar with the havoc of climate change.

Is the Arctic heatwave a big deal? Not taken by itself. By itself it is merely a datapoint, and we need to concern ourselves with trends, not dramatic points. The trend is alarming, but this weekend's data point is not.

The red areas show deviation from normal, but perhaps it should be light blue? Despite the heatwave, the region remains well below freezing. You're going to need a jacket.

The red areas show deviation from normal, but perhaps it should be light blue? Despite the heatwave, the region remains well below freezing. You're going to need a jacket.


We need to maintain perspective and we need to shift the conversation. Presently, there is a major public debate over whether or not the planet is warming and if humans are responsible. But there are much greater questions to answer. What should we do about pollution? And how should we care for creation? How much should be set aside and how much should we manage for the benefit of humanity? Who should profit by such development and how much is reasonable?

As long as we quibble over what to do with our CO2 emissions, harmful or not, we distract ourselves from answering fundamental, ontological questions about our future. We must not be distracted or alarmed by stunning headlines like "Arctic 20 degrees hotter than normal!" when normal is still 26 degrees below zero, and 58 degrees below freezing.

It is time to change from the debates that divide us to the discussions that unite us, because no matter who is right or wrong about CO2 emissions, we still share the same planet. We breathe the same air, drink the same water, and will share a common fate. It's time to rise above the debate and look for ways to work together, not against.

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