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Benedict is scheduled to make stops in Ankara, Ephesus and Istanbul. Among the conundrums awaiting him:

- How to reassure Muslims that he’s a friend of Islam, especially in the wake of his controversial Sept. 12 comments at the University of Regensburg, quoting a 14th-century Byzantine emperor to the effect that Muhammad brought things “only evil and inhuman”? Benedict won’t have to wait long; on the first day of the trip, he meets Ali Bardakoglu, Turkey’s top religious affairs director, who called the Regensburg remarks “regrettable and worrying ... both for the Christian world and for the common peace of humanity.”

- How to encourage moderate Muslim voices in Turkey, a country often seen as the best hope for dialogue with the Islamic world, without inadvertently reinforcing either of two contrary forces: on the one hand, a rising tide of Islamic fundamentalism sometimes linked to nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire; and on the other, the rigid secularization associated with the modern founder of Turkey, Kemal Atatürk, who attempted to suppress virtually every public expression of Islam?

- What, if anything, to say about the dire situation facing Turkey’s small Christian communities, such as the forced closure of the seminaries of the patriarchate of Constantinople and the Armenian Orthodox church? If the pope is perceived as confrontational, it could further sour relations with Muslims, especially given the bitter history in Turkey of foreign powers demanding special treatment for Christians. Yet the original purpose of Benedict’s visit was to reinforce ecumenical relations with the Orthodox, especially Bartholomew I, patriarch of Constantinople, and it’s difficult to imagine that the pope can remain silent on the issue of religious freedom.

- What, if anything, to say about Turkey’s candidacy for the European Union – a move which then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger had opposed prior to his election as pope, on the grounds that it would further muddy Europe’s Christian identity? (Ironically, the more radical Muslim forces in Turkey, which Benedict wants to discourage, are the most likely to be Euro-skeptics.)

- What, if anything, to say about the decimation of Turkey’s Armenian population in the early 20th century, which Armenians recall as “genocide,” a term bitterly contested by Turks? Especially when Benedict meets the Armenian patriarch in Turkey, Mesrob II, on Nov. 30, it will be a tough question to avoid.

- What, if anything, to say about the delicate situation on Cyprus, where an unrecognized Turkish regime controls the northern portion of the island? On Nov. 10, Benedict met with President Tassos Papadopoulos, who governs the Greek-dominated (and therefore predominantly Christian) portion of Cyprus, receiving a collection of photos from Papadopoulos showing Christian churches in the north that have been destroyed or converted into mosques, bars and hotels. The meeting was widely seen in Turkey as a pro-Greek gesture, and it raised expectations that Benedict may address the Cyprus question during the trip.

Beyond these challenges, one final unknown hovers in the form of security considerations. In perhaps the most ominous premonition, a potboiler novel published in Turkey over the summer titled Papa’ya suikast (Attack on the Pope) predicted that Benedict will be assassinated while in Turkey. Written by novelist Yücel Kaya, the book is subtitled, “Who will kill Benedict XVI in Istanbul?”

Both senior Vatican officials and local organizers say that while the pope can be protected, it may prove more difficult to secure local Christian targets – churches, schools and Christian-owned businesses – against reprisals should public opinion turn against the trip or should extremist groups want to capitalize on the pope’s presence to lash out.

Turkey thus offers both promise and peril aplenty for Benedict’s effort to engage Muslims in what he has called a “frank and sincere” dialogue.

Despite Atatürk’s vision in the early 20th century of a modern, pro-Western Turkey, the Islamic roots of the country are never far from the surface. Historically, the Ottoman Empire was considered the great carrier of Islamic civilization from the 16th to the 20th centuries, and Turkish Muslims have kept that heritage alive despite several decades of official secularization.

The electoral victory of Islamic-inspired political forces in the 2002 national elections, which brought former Istanbul Mayor Recep Tayyip Erdogan to power as prime minister, offered a clear reminder of Turkey’s enduring Muslim identity. (Erdogan will not meet Benedict in Turkey, opting instead to attend a NATO summit in Latvia.)

A recent national poll conducted by Professors Ali Carkoglu and Ersin Kalaycioglu from Sabanci and Isik Universities in Istanbul found that more than 60 percent of Turks would refuse permission for their daughter to ...