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Dr. Roy Spencer on Global Warming, 'No one knows' Comments

Many of our readers have urged Catholic Online to interview Dr. Roy Spencer as a leading, qualified skeptic on the issue of anthropogenic global warming. On Monday, Marshall Connolly interviewed Dr. Spencer to hear his expert opinions on the issue. Continue Reading

41 - 50 of 69 Comments

  1. Chris Golledge
    1 year ago

    "We must remember that the CO2-induced change in the Earth's ability to cool to outer space, which can only be calculated based upon theory, has only been reduced by 1%. "

    Well gee, the earth has a mean temperature of ~287 K. Stefan-Boltzman says that radiated energy is proportional to the fourth power of the absolute temperature. Do the math, and that 1% works out to be about 3/4 of a degree C, and that is a bit less than we have seen so far, and we know that there is currently more energy coming in than leaving (so, there is a bit of lag in the system); and so, Dr. Spencer has just agreed that the warming we have seen so far is entirely consistent with the radiative energy changes we know we have caused.

    How is that compatible with the idea that "No one knows"?

  2. Jeff Green
    1 year ago

    Roy Spencer has not seriously put forward any good science on climate. He's just a fassad for denial and delay of climate action.


    Andrew Dessler is a premier climate scientist and this is what he said about Roy Spencer.


    http://www.desmogblog.com/roy-spencer


    In Andrew Dessler's view, "[This] paper is not really intended for other scientists, since they do not take Roy Spencer seriously anymore (he’s been wrong too many times). Rather, he’s writing his papers for Fox News, the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal, Congressional staffers, and the blogs. These are his audience and the people for whom this research is actually useful — in stopping policies to reduce GHG emissions — which is what Roy wants." [8]

  3. Richard C. Savage
    1 year ago

    Tom King 6 hours ago
    By question #2 it was clear to me that Dr. Spencer is a propagandist for the Oil Industry.

    Some proof, Mr. King?

  4. Tom King
    1 year ago

    By question #2 it was clear to me that Dr. Spencer is a propagandist for the Oil Industry.

  5. Layzej
    1 year ago

    Hi Richard,

    You mentioned: "The UK Met Office, NOAA, and NASA all agree there has been no atmospheric warming for the last decade; the UK Met Office says there's been no land surface warming for 15 years."

    In fact the UK Met Office said no such thing. Here is what they did say: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/14/met-office-in-the-media-14-october-2012/

    Here is a chart showing the NASA and UK temperature reconstructions. I have also included Dr Spencer's satellite reconstruction: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp-dts/from:1979/mean:12/plot/uah/mean:12/offset:0.55/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1979/mean:12/offset:0.3

    It doesn't look like the warming has paused. Yearly fluctuation is caused by the ENSO cycle. El Nino warms the atmosphere and La Nina cools it. This is caused by an exchange of heat between the oceans and the atmosphere. This can create wobbles over the steady 0.16C/decade trend caused by global warming, but the slow but steady warming trend does continue.

    John Nielsen-Gammon has a novel way of teasing the trend from the noise. He finds a similar trend among El Nino, La Nina, and ENSO neutral years. http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2013/01/global-temperature-anomaly-forecasts-january-2013/

  6. Layzej
    1 year ago

    Hi Jerry,

    You say on the one hand that: "(Earth) has a standard deviation of 8 deg in its mean temperature on a daily basis."

    On the other hand you say that we cannot possibly know the temperature of the Earth because: "there is no accepted standard method of averaging all these variable temperatures into one, single, non-changing "global temperature" value. Dr Spencer has developed his own method of doing this from satellite-based measurements"

    Obviously both cannot be true. In fact neither is true. We know the Earth does not vary in temperature by 8C (or F) on a daily basis. We know this because we have measurements. As you note we measurements from satellites but we also have terrestrial weather stations. Both are in good agreement: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp-dts/from:1979/mean:12/plot/uah/mean:12/offset:0.55

    Your intuition fails you in this regard. It may be intuitive to think that temperature varies by such a large amount on a daily basis because you experience such a variation. Of course when the sun sets on your home it rises on another. It may get colder for you but it will be hotter elsewhere.

    This failure of intuition highlights the important of having experts who study this topic. The Pontifical Academy of Sciences, one of the oldest scientific institutes in the world, issued a report calling, “on all people and nations to recognize the serious and potentially irreversible impacts of global warming caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.” http://catholicclimatecovenant.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Pontifical-Academy-of-Sciences_Glacier_Report_050511_final.pdf

    They are in good company. The science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, Turkey, and the United Kingdom released a statement endorsing the consensus view as reported by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).

    The American Association for the Advancement of Science as the world's largest general scientific society, adopted an official statement on climate change in 2006:
    The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society....The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.

    The Royal Society of the United Kingdom's most recent statement starts: "There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-century has been caused largely by human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use"

    The American Geophysical Union stated: "The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. Global average surface temperatures increased on average by about 0.6°C over the period 1956–2006. As of 2006, eleven of the previous twelve years were warmer than any others since 1850. The observed rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice is expected to continue and lead to the disappearance of summertime ice within this century. Evidence from most oceans and all continents except Antarctica shows warming attributable to human activities. Recent changes in many physical and biological systems are linked with this regional climate change"

    The list goes on and on: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

    The number of scientific societies taking a stance against the consensus view? None.

  7. Jeremy
    1 year ago

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Roy_Spencer.htm

    For those that seek the truth go here and see the remarks of Spencer and the actual facts.

  8. Richard C. Savage
    1 year ago

    "The moving finger writes, and having writ, moves on...."

    Japan is likely to abandon an ambitious pledge to slash greenhouse gas emissions by a quarter, the top government spokesman said on Thursday. Asked to confirm if the new administration would review Tokyo’s 2009 pledge, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said the government was “moving in that direction in principle”. “I have been saying for some time that it is a tremendous target and would be impossible to achieve,” he told a regular news conference. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s business-friendly Liberal Democratic Party ousted the Democratic Party in December elections after pledging to review the emissions cut target in light of the post-Fukushima switch to fossil fuels. --AFP, 24 January
    2013

    The home of the Kyoto Treaty - which the US Government was smart enough never to ratify - has recognized the futility of feel-good green gestures.

    "...nor all your lies nor bad science, can cancel out a line of it...

  9. Mary
    1 year ago

    I would like to hear from Lindzer, atmospheric scientist from MIT.
    Also, I would like the opinion of nuclear engineers/scientists on reliability, cost, environmental effects of this energy source.
    Solar....in New England?
    Wind...no one wants a windmill in their backyard...the Kennedys did not like the idea when windmills were proposed on Cape Cod! Not in my back yard. They kill birds and are noisy.
    And the wind does not always blow! Reliable?
    The sun does not always shine? Reliable? Expensive?
    Put that in your gas tank.

  10. Richard C. Savage
    1 year ago

    The UK Met Office, NOAA, and NASA all agree there has been no atmospheric warming for the last decade; the UK Met Office says there's been no land surface warming for 15 years.

    This information has been widely published on the Internet; anyone can find it by looking.

    But who are they to disagree with Gordo Merrick?


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